What the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Really Means for the Middle: A Centrist Take on Trump’s Landmark Law
As fireworks prepare to light the sky this July 4th, President Donald J. Trump is ready to sign what he calls the “One Big Beautiful Bill”—a sweeping, thousand-page legislative behemoth that merges tax reform, spending cuts, border security, and healthcare changes into one massive package. For the far right, it’s a long-awaited victory. For the progressive left, it’s a gut punch. But for the rest of us—the centrists, independents, and politically homeless—it’s not so simple.
We hear both sides shouting. But what does this bill mean to the Americans who don’t wear red or blue jerseys every election?
A “Mixed Bag” for the Middle Class
At its core, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) aims to permanently extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, raise the SALT deduction cap, expand child and senior tax credits, and provide deductions for tips, overtime, and even car loan interest—for a few years, at least. That’s good news for many working and middle-class families.
From a moderate standpoint, that’s a win.
These changes mean real money back into pockets, particularly for families in high-tax states, small business owners, and service industry workers. The bill also extends bonus depreciation for businesses and boosts Health Savings Account limits, which could help the self-employed and gig workers with unpredictable healthcare costs.
But here’s the catch: those tax benefits come with deep cuts to Medicaid, SNAP, and clean energy investment—lifelines for millions of Americans who don’t have a safety net beyond those programs.
Cutting Costs or Cutting Off the Vulnerable?
The OBBBA’s fiscal tradeoff is stark. To pay for these tax changes, the bill slashes an estimated $1 trillion from Medicaid and SNAP over the next decade. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that:
11.8 million people could lose Medicaid by 2034 due to new work requirements and red tape.
3 million fewer people will receive SNAP benefits each month.
Over 8 million more Americans may become uninsured, many of them children and low-income families.
From a centrist lens, this feels like a cruel tradeoff—tax relief at the cost of basic healthcare and food security. Moderates tend to support work requirements for able-bodied adults, but not if the process is so burdensome it punishes people trying to get by in rural or economically stagnant areas.
Many independents also worry about the political optics: are we telling struggling Americans they aren’t worthy of help unless they fit a narrowly defined ideal of “deserving”? That’s not moderate governance. That’s ideological overreach.
Border Security and Defense: Necessary, But Expensive
The bill allocates a staggering $170 billion toward immigration enforcement and border security—including $100 billion for ICE and the largest deportation effort in U.S. history. To Trump supporters, that’s a promise kept. To progressives, it’s a human rights violation.
For centrists, the answer lies somewhere in between.
Yes, we want secure borders and an orderly immigration process. But we also value fairness, due process, and cost efficiency. Pouring this much money into deportation efforts—while cutting healthcare and food aid—feels like prioritizing headlines over humanity. The same goes for the $150 billion in defense increases, including military tech and AI. While innovation is important, how do we justify those boosts while scaling back domestic support systems?
Clean Energy Rollbacks: A Risk to the Economy, Not Just the Climate
Centrists are also increasingly concerned about climate-related job growth—especially in states like Colorado, Michigan, and North Carolina, where green energy jobs are booming. The OBBBA’s rollback of solar, wind, and electric vehicle tax credits could eliminate tens of thousands of jobs, putting small contractors, engineers, and manufacturers out of work.
Even for centrists who aren’t climate warriors, this is bad economics. Why undercut emerging industries while propping up outdated ones?
The Debt Problem No One Wants to Own
Let’s talk numbers.
The bill is projected to add $3.3–$3.8 trillion to the national deficit over the next decade. Even after adjusting for projected GDP growth, that’s a $2.9 trillion increase in debt. Trump’s team touts dynamic growth, but growth doesn’t erase debt—and most moderates know that.
You don’t have to be a budget hawk to be concerned that this bill gives away more than it saves. Elon Musk’s critique—threatening to start a new party over fiscal irresponsibility—may sound extreme, but many independents share his concern.
If we’re going to slash social programs, shouldn’t we at least balance the books?
Outlook: A Win, a Warning, and a Wait-and-See
There are elements of the One Big Beautiful Bill that centrists genuinely like:
Tax relief for middle-income families
Greater economic flexibility for small businesses
Encouragement for work and savings through HSA and deduction expansions
Investment in border security without raising taxes
But there are also warning signs:
Social safety nets weakened for the working poor and disabled
Healthcare access jeopardized for millions
Clean energy job losses
Ballooning debt with no clear plan to reduce it
For moderates and independents, this bill is neither a full victory nor a total disaster. It’s a test.
A test of whether tax relief can spark real, sustained economic growth without leaving the vulnerable behind. A test of whether moderate Republicans in swing districts can sell this bill to voters who rely on the very programs being cut. And a test of whether Trump’s brand of populist, economy-first governance can evolve into something that truly includes—and uplifts—the forgotten middle.
Final Word
This isn’t the worst bill ever passed. But it may be the most revealing—about who Congress is listening to, who they’re willing to sacrifice, and how far they’ll go to meet a political deadline.
We in the center will watch closely. Not because we expect perfection—but because we’re tired of being ignored by both extremes. And if this bill fails to deliver the prosperity it promises while deepening inequality and instability, it won’t just be a “big, beautiful” law.
It will be a big, bipartisan failure.
I have to disagree with the writer on this one. There are at least 1.5 MILLION illegal aliens on Medicaid, and over 13 MILLION able-bodied on Medicaid that have overrun Medicaid. Half of working-age adults (age 19-64) on Medicaid worked 20 hours or fewer per week in 2024. Even among ablebodied adults on Medicaid without children, 44 percent worked less than 20 hours per week in 2024, with 88
percent of this group not working at all.
• Federal taxpayers spent $56.1 billion on Medicaid for childless, working-age, able-bodied adults
working 20 hours a week or less in 2024 alone, amounting to 11 percent of total federal Medicaid spending. In 10 years (by 2034) that amount being saved will amount to well over $500 BILLION.
• This spending was concentrated among a few states, with California and New York costing federal taxpayers $13.5 billion and $6.4 billion in 2024 alone, respectively, accounting for over one third of the total nationwide.
As for SNAP and foodstamps, between 1.5 MILLION and 2 MILLION illegal aliens unlawfully receive these benefits each year. On February 25, 2025, Secretary Rollins directed USDA-FNS to review the administration of SNAP benefits to make necessary changes to align with Executive Order 14128. As discussed in a recent Government Accountability Office (GAO) report, a staggering $10.5 billion in improper SNAP payments were made in FY 2023 alone—about 12% of total SNAP payments that year. The inadequate verification of an applicant’s identity and citizenship by states is specifically highlighted as contributing to the improper payments of SNAP funds.
It is estimated that there is over $105 BILLION in Medicare and Medicaid Fraud each year, with over $50 BILLION in Medicare Fraud and waste.
Illegal aliens cost the United States taxpayers over $200 BILLION DOLLARS per year in fraudulent use of welfare, free health care, free housing, free legal services, free food stamps, free cash, etc. And most Illegals don't pay taxes. Illegal immigrants do pay some taxes. It is estimated that illegal immigrants in 2019 paid roughly $5.9 billion in federal income tax, $16.2 billion in Social Security tax and $3.8 billion in Medicaid taxes. However, as the net fiscal drain of $68,000 per person cited above indicates, these taxes are not nearly enough to cover the cost of the services they receive.
• Illegal immigrants do add perhaps $321 billion to the nation’s GDP, but this is not a
measure of their tax contributions or the benefits they create for the U.S.-born. Almost all
the increase in economic activity goes to the illegal immigrants themselves in the form of
wages. Most of the money illegals make is sent back to their home countries via electronic money sending services like Western Union, Wells Fargo and others.
Illegal immigrants make extensive use of welfare. Based on government data, we
estimate that 59 percent of households headed by illegal immigrants use one or more
major welfare programs, compared to 39 percent of households headed by the U.S.-born.
• Based on their use rate of major welfare programs, we estimate that illegal immigrants
receive $42 billion in benefits, or about 4 percent of the total cost of the cash, Medicaid,
food and housing programs examined in our study. However, this is only a rough
approximation due to limitations in the data.
• Illegal immigrants can receive welfare on behalf of U.S.-born children. Also, illegal
immigrant children can receive school lunch/breakfast and WIC directly. A number of
states provide Medicaid to some illegal immigrants, and a few provide SNAP. Several
million illegal immigrants also have work authorization (e.g. DACA, TPS and some
asylum applicants), allowing receipt of the EITC.
• The high welfare use of illegal immigrant households is not explained by an
unwillingness to work. In fact, 94 percent of illegal immigrant households have at least
one worker, compared to only 73 percent of U.S.-born households. But the nation’s
welfare system is design to help low-wage workers with children, which describes a very
large share of illegal immigrant households.
• In addition to consuming welfare, illegal immigration makes significant use of public
education. Based on average costs per student, the estimated 4 million children of illegal
immigrants in public schools created $68.1 billion in costs in 2019. The vast majority of
these children are U.S.-born.
• Use of emergency medical services is another area in which illegal immigrants create
significant fiscal costs. Prior research indicates that there are 5.8 million uninsured illegal
immigrants in the country in 2019, accounting for a little over one-fifth of the total
population without health insurance. The costs of providing care to them likely totals
some $7 billion annually.
Under the bill, for the first time in the history of the Medicaid program, beneficiaries would need to prove they are working or in school at least 80 hours a month to keep their health insurance. The Senate version extends the requirement to low-income parents of children older than 14, in addition to childless adults without disabilities. The work requirements are projected to save about $325 billion over a decade. Wealthy "BLUE STATES", specifically California, New York, Illinois, Washington, Oregon, Maryland, Massachusetts, etc. are gaming the Medicaid system through a "bait and switch" tax scam. Most of the Medicaid fraud and waste is caused when States impose taxes on providers to boost their federal Medicaid contributions, which they then redirect to hospitals in the form of higher reimbursements. The recent influx of Illegal aliens, due to the China Joe Biden Administration's "Open Border" policies, even though they said it was the "most secure border" at the time, into the system have caused this problem to increase significantly.