The 2025 Orioles Collapse: What Went Wrong, Who's Getting Traded, and What Comes Next
At the 2025 All-Star break, the Baltimore Orioles find themselves in a stunning free fall. With a 43–53 record, they're dead last in the AL East—13 games behind the division-leading Blue Jays and nowhere near the playoff expectations set after back-to-back competitive seasons.
In 2024, the Orioles won 91 games. A year later, they're contemplating a deadline sell-off. How did it go so wrong, so fast?
🔻 The Anatomy of a Collapse
1. Injuries Devastated the Rotation
Baltimore’s rotation has been gutted. Grayson Rodriguez—seen as the rotation’s future ace—hasn’t thrown a pitch all year due to arm trouble. Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells are both recovering from UCL surgeries. The result? The worst rotation ERA in the American League at 5.27. That stat alone tells the story.
Free-agent Band-Aids like Charlie Morton (who started with a 10.89 ERA) and Tomoyuki Sugano (5.25 FIP) have only partially stopped the bleeding. The Orioles bet on depth that didn’t exist—and lost.
2. Offense Goes Missing
Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, and Jordan Westburg have regressed. Cedric Mullins is still showing 20-20 potential but has hit just .180 since April with a brutal .586 OPS. The offense was expected to carry this team. Instead, it disappeared in the clutch.
3. Declining Defense
Once a highlight, the Orioles' defense has taken a nosedive—especially in the outfield. Mullins, a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder in the past, has a negative fielding run value for the first time in his career. It’s a stark drop-off that’s made things harder on an already struggling pitching staff.
4. Bullpen No Longer Dominant
Yennier Cano has fallen off from his elite 2023 form, and though Félix Bautista has returned from Tommy John surgery with a solid 2.48 ERA, his strikeout-to-walk ratio has dipped. Offseason additions like Andrew Kittredge and Seranthony Domínguez haven’t provided enough reliability to close out games.
5. Failed Offseason
Mike Elias's winter shopping spree is flopping hard. Tyler O’Neill—signed to replace Anthony Santander—has been injured and ineffective (66 OPS+). Sugano and Morton are past their primes. The team let Corbin Burnes walk and failed to replace him with anything close to a true No. 1 starter. Fans are justified in their frustration.
🧩 Why Are They This Bad Despite the Talent?
The Orioles were supposed to compete. They had a young core. They had momentum. But…
Injuries exposed a lack of real depth.
Young players regressed across the board.
Elias built a roster with aging veterans and injury risks instead of fortifying the rotation with proven arms.
The farm system is thinner now—not depleted, but lacking the immediate impact depth that made the 2023 squad so dangerous.
Firing manager Brandon Hyde in May didn’t fix things. Interim manager Tony Mansolino has steadied the ship (20–18 since), but the damage was already done.
🔁 Will the Orioles Sell at the Deadline?
Unless the O’s rattle off a 10-game win streak right out of the break, the answer is yes. With a playoff probability below 4% and 7 games back of the final Wild Card, Baltimore is expected to be active sellers.
GM Mike Elias is considering a buy-sell hybrid strategy: flipping expiring contracts for controllable talent, while holding on to his franchise cornerstones.
🧱 The Core Isn’t Going Anywhere
You can safely rule out trades involving:
Gunnar Henderson
Adley Rutschman
Jackson Holliday
Grayson Rodriguez
These four are seen as the pillars of 2026 and beyond. Unless someone offers an ace under long-term control (think Shane McClanahan), they’re untouchable.
But the rest? They’re on the table.
⚾️ Top Trade Candidates
Here’s who could be moved before July 31:
🔥 Ryan O’Hearn (1B/DH/OF)
2025 All-Star. Hitting .301/.384/.485. With a team option for 2026, he’s a lock to draw interest from contenders like the Braves, Royals, or Giants.
⚠️ Cedric Mullins (CF)
Speed and defense are still attractive despite his offensive slump. The Phillies have reportedly shown interest.
🩺 Zach Eflin (RHP)
Has underwhelmed but could still net a mid-tier pitching prospect from a team like the Astros.
💸 Charlie Morton (RHP)
After a rocky start, Morton has bounced back and will be a sought-after rental for clubs like Boston or San Francisco.
🚑 Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP)
A disappointing 2025, but his one-year deal makes him tradeable as a low-risk flyer.
🔄 Seranthony Domínguez & Gregory Soto (RHPs)
Both hard-throwing relievers could provide bullpen depth for teams like the Dodgers, Twins, or Rays.
❗ Félix Bautista (RHP)
This would be the nuclear option. Bautista has two years of control left and elite stuff, but if the return is massive—think a top-50 MLB prospect—he could be moved.
🌪️ Trevor Rogers (LHP)
He’s pitched well lately but could regress. If Elias gets an offer with long-term value, don’t be shocked if he takes it.
🧱 Ramón Laureano & Ramón Urías
Depth pieces with some trade value, likely to be moved for mid-tier prospects or as part of larger packages.
🧪 Buy-Sell? Or Fire Sale?
Don’t expect a total teardown. This is more of a strategic retool for 2026:
The Orioles want to build around Henderson, Rutschman, and Holliday.
They’ll try to add young, controllable pitchers.
They’ll leverage their league-leading draft bonus pool to replenish the farm system.
Fans on social media are split. Some want a full fire sale. Others want Elias to extend the core, not sell it off. Either way, expect a busy deadline.
⚾️ What Now?
Baltimore has to admit 2025 was a misfire—plagued by injury, regression, and roster mismanagement. But not all is lost.
If they move the right pieces and make wise additions this offseason, the Orioles can re-emerge as a contender in 2026.
That’s little consolation for fans watching a promising season go down the drain—but at least there’s a plan. And it’s better than trying to fake contention with a broken rotation and a slumping lineup.
Bottom Line:
The Orioles were supposed to fly high in 2025. Instead, they crash-landed. Now it’s time to regroup, retool, and get ready for 2026—with better pitching, fewer gambles, and lessons learned.