Montgomery County Executive Race: Over/Under Odds for 2026’s Dysfunction Derby
As the race to replace outgoing Montgomery County Executive Marc Elrich begins to resemble a political version of The Hunger Games (minus the archery, for now), political junkies and degenerate gamblers alike are turning their attention to the only question that really matters: Who’s got the odds to win—or wreck the county fastest?
With five declared Democratic candidates already elbowing their way onto the ballot—and zero Republicans in sight—there’s plenty of action on the speculative betting boards. Below, we break down the unofficial Over/Under odds for each candidate, ranked not just by their electability, but by the potential damage (or salvation) they could unleash.
Will Jawando
OVER/UNDER ODDS TO WIN: +150 (Favorited)
OVER/UNDER ON COUNTY BUREAUCRACIES CREATED: 7.5
ENDORSEMENT: Marc Elrich
Jawando enters the race with the prized Elrich endorsement, which is either a golden ticket or a ticking time bomb, depending on your tolerance for equity task forces and spending sprees. He’s preaching a familiar sermon—education, equity, housing—so the safe bet is: more programs, more departments, and even less room to breathe on your property tax bill.
Prop Bet: Will Jawando create a Department of Equity Enforcement with its own armed inspectors? Odds: +300
Andrew Friedson
OVER/UNDER ODDS TO WIN: +275
OVER/UNDER ON TAX RATE CHANGES: 0.5
Campaign Slogan: “Let’s Make It Affordable, Again-ish”
Friedson is the only candidate pretending to care about affordability, which in Montgomery County makes him the libertarian of the pack. He’s trying to ride the pragmatic Democrat lane, but whether that appeals to voters conditioned to expect free stuff with no fiscal math is still TBD.
Prop Bet: Will Friedson be labeled a secret conservative by primary season? Odds: -110
Evan Glass
OVER/UNDER ODDS TO WIN: +400
OVER/UNDER ON MILES OF UNUSED BIKE LANES: 32.5
Campaign Focus: Social justice meets small business
Glass wants to help entrepreneurs and advance progressive priorities, which is a lot like saying you want to run a vegan BBQ joint. His track record suggests more symbolic gestures than structural reform—so if you love new crosswalks with rainbow stripes but hate getting permits on time, bet the Over.
Prop Bet: Number of new intersection murals under Glass: Over/Under 12.5
Celeste Iroha
OVER/UNDER ODDS TO WIN: +950
OVER/UNDER ON MEDIA COVERAGE: 1.5 total articles
Background: Medical assistant turned hopeful public servant
Iroha was first to declare, which usually gives a head start—unless no one notices. With little detail on her platform, she’s a wild card. Could she surprise the field? Possibly. Could she also accidentally get confused for someone’s campaign nurse? Also possible.
Prop Bet: Number of debates where moderators ask “So what exactly is your platform?”: Over/Under 3.5
Mithun Banerjee
OVER/UNDER ODDS TO WIN: +800
OVER/UNDER ON TAX CUTS PROPOSED: 2.5
Stated Goals: End tax hikes, help small business, tackle housing
Banerjee’s platform is suspiciously sensible, which practically disqualifies him in a county where logic is considered offensive. As a real estate investor, he may have a better grasp of housing policy than anyone else, but that could also make him a target for the anti-development crowd.
Prop Bet: Will Banerjee be accused of trying to gentrify Bethesda? Odds: +200
The Ghost of Marc Elrich (Write-in Watch)
OVER/UNDER ODDS TO WIN: +10,000
OVER/UNDER ON DENSITY LIMITS: 0.0001 new units per acre
Legacy: Two terms, hundreds of pages of failed zoning reform
Though he’s term-limited (thank whatever gods remain), Elrich’s spirit looms over the race. His endorsement of Jawando is the political version of a horcrux—part blessing, part curse. His loyal base may show up—but so might the ghosts of economic opportunities past.
Prop Bet: Will any candidate promise to undo Elrich’s legacy? Odds: -500 (never gonna happen)
The Republican Placeholder
OVER/UNDER ODDS TO FILE: +5000
OVER/UNDER ON ACTUAL VOTES: 4.5% of total electorate
No GOP candidate has entered. Will one appear before the February 2026 deadline? Maybe. Will they win? No. But hey, if the Dem field hits 50+ and splits every vote into 2% increments, you never know. Stranger things have happened. (Actually, they haven’t, but we’re bored.)
Prop Bet: Will Republicans even remember Montgomery County exists? Odds: +1500
Final Line:
OVER/UNDER ON TOTAL DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES BY FEBRUARY 2026: 49.5
Take the over. With every nonprofit leader, DEI consultant, and progressive influencer eyeing the throne, the race to replace Elrich is about to look like a Coachella lineup of policy platitudes and bureaucratic ambition. The only real question is:
Will anyone accidentally propose something that actually works?
Place your bets, Montgomery County.